Here is a quick recap of Markets for the Week of February 16th, 2024 and what we are watching this week 👨‍🏫

The stock market experienced mixed price action last week. Tuesday's trade featured a broad, sharp retreat in response to a hotter than expected CPI for January, which sent Treasury yields sharply higher.

However, by the end of the week the major indices managed to win back a lot of that lost ground.

Markets are holding onto the hope that inflation will continue to downtrend, the macro-environment will remain strong, and that the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later.

Is this HOT inflation print just a one off or the beginning of a second wave?

Here are the key points from last week:

• January’s HOT CPI report - surprised to the upside, particularly on the Core CPI reading. Core CPI, (excludes volatile components of food and energy,) accelerated 0.4% and up 3.9% from a year ago vs. forecasts of 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively. Shelter prices, which comprise about one-third of the CPI weighting, accounted for the majority of the increase after rising 0.6% for the month. This report gives Fed officials an argument to maintain their hawkish rhetoric and delay the discussion about initial rate cuts.

• January’s PPI report - Producers based inflation also came in stronger than expected. Headline PPI on a monthly basis rose 0.3%, (biggest move since August 2023) was above the forecasted 0.1% increase. Core PPI, which excludes volatile components of food and energy, increased 0.5% on a monthly basis vs. expectations of a 0.1% gain.

• Retail Sales - for January came in weaker than expected. Sales declined 0.8% on a monthly basis (the biggest drop in a year). However, January does tend to be a weaker month for retail sales due to seasonality impacts by consumer spending.

$SPY:  S&P 500 had a sharp selloff midweek due to the higher than expected inflation numbers however, Bulls brought the dip and markets closed mostly flat.

Click the chart below for a quick video explaining the key levels on SPY and QQQ we are watching for the next 2-3 weeks (4min mark).

Have your shopping list ready because a 5-10% pull back will create a BIG buying opportunity for investors!

I do a weekly Markets analysis every Monday during “Office Hours” 8:30pm EST via zoom for the Ceni Capital Community I will be speaking about market sentiment for the next 2-3 weeks, the companies reporting earnings this week and the stocks I am watching.

If you are interested in making your money work for you by getting our swing trade alerts ahead of time, reply back or comment “Swing Trade” below for more information.

$TSLA: We have been watching Tesla the last 2 weeks for a bottoming pattern after a rough start to the year and caught a quick +111% gain last week on call options. Check the video above where we explain the setup and our plan for it next week (10 minute mark).

$RNA:  swing trade tagged our next price target at $14.50 for +99.73% gain from our $7.28 entry.

$COIN:  Coinbase swing trade tagged our $190 price target for 59% gain from our $119 entry after beating on earnings last week. Check out the video above to hear our plan for it going forward (10min mark).

Learn to make your money work for you, rather than you chasing it. 

Watchlist 👨‍🏫

$NVDA: It is no surprise that Nvidia has been the strongest stock since May 2023. It reports earnings on Wednesday after the close and the whole world will be on watch!

Investors have gotten used to incredible year-over-year comparisons during the past several quarters for Nvidia Corp., which continues to lead the market for graphics-processing units being deployed by data centers to support their corporate clients' build-out of artificial-intelligence technology.

The consensus among analysts is for NVDA to report quarterly sales of $20.28 billion, up from $6.05 billion a year earlier.

Will Markets pass the NVDA test and keep rallying or does the “most anticipated” pullback start this week?

$SMCI: Super Micro Computer has gone paranovia +240% in a month trading from $315 to over $1000 may be getting ready to come back down to reality. It sold off sharply -20% on Friday and looks to bet setting up for the backside of the move, especially if NVDA pulls back.

For those that trade puts or short stocks, there’s plenty of meat left on this bone. Here’s what we are looking for

$WMT: Walmart is reporting earnings on Tuesday before the open. It had a sharp sell off the last time it reported back in November due to guidance, lets see if that forward guidance has changed.

Wall Street analysts predict that Walmart will report quarterly earnings of $1.64 per share, with revenues amounting to $170.49 billion. This marks a 3.9% increase compared to the same quarter last year.

$CVNA: Carvana a high beta growth name with a high short percentage (meaning Bears betting the stock is going lower) is reporting earnings on Thursday after the close and may spark some fireworks if it can get over $60-$65.

Shares of Carvana, an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars, soared 1,017% last year and another 8.8% so far this year. The gains stem partly from Carvana's ability to restructure its debt and perform operational improvements — such as lowering costs at inspection centers and insourcing services last year.

Wall St is projecting a quarterly loss of $0.93 per share, which represents a year-over-year change of +4.1%. Revenues are expected to be $2.56 billion, down 9.6% from the year-ago quarter.

If you are interested in getting our swing trade alerts ahead of time, reply back or comment Swing Trades below for more information.

What are you looking to do different this year that will change where you are a year from now?

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See you next week! 👋