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Here is a quick recap of Markets for the Week of April 12th, 2024 and what we are watching this week 👨🏫
The stock market closed with solid losses last week driven by a jump in treasury rates, a recalibration of rate cut expectations, and increased geopolitical tensions.
Uncertainty about Iran possibly attacking Israel over the weekend kept dip buyers cautiously away awaiting potential developments.
Here are the key points from last week:
Hotter than expected March CPI - Total Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4% m/m vs. an expected 0.3% increase and core-CPI (excludes food and energy) increased 0.4% m/m vs. an expected 0.3% increase.
March PPI - The Producer Price Index (PPI) accelerated to 2.1% in March from 1.6% in February.
Rethinking rate cut expectations - the market's expectations at the start of the year were for 6 rate cuts by the end of 2024, but inflation data the last 4-6 weeks have been a brutal gut check bringing expectations down to 2 rate cuts now.
Soft start to Q1 earnings - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon made some cautious-sounding macro comments. Citigroup and Wells Fargo also logged declines after their earnings results.
S&P 500 Heat map for the week
Sector Performance Breakdown
The Week Ahead
Monday, April 15th - Friday, April 19th, 2024
Attention this week will be focused on:
Housing Starts and Permits - Housing starts in March are expected to fall back to a 1.480 million annual rate vs.February's 1.521 million rate that was much higher than expected but followed a much lower-than-expected 1.374 million in January. Permits, at 1.518 million in February, are expected to hold steady at 1.541 million.
- Housing starts measure the initial construction of single-family and multi-family units on a monthly basis. Data on permits provide indications of future construction.Existing Home Sales - After February's 4.38m jump from January's 3.92 million annualized rate the National Association of Realtors said reflected pent-up demand, existing home sales in March are expected to fall back to 4.18 million.
- Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.
Most Anticipated Earnings this week
$SPY: S&P 500 broke out of its trading range as inflation data came in hotter than expected hurting the rate cut thesis last week.
It closed the week -2% on its way to test it’s 50d moving average. This week will tell if the buy the dip mentality which has been in play all 2024 still holds.
If SPY can’t hold 510 look for it to continue pulling back to 500 and 495.
SPY reclaim of 512 trades to 514,516,518,520. Under 509 pulls back to 506,504,500
What is your plan if markets pull back 5-10%?
I do a weekly Markets analysis every Monday at 8:30pm EST via zoom for the Ceni Capital Community I will be speaking about the shift in market sentiment, companies reporting earnings and the stocks I am watching for Swing Trades.
Trades Recap 📊
If you are interested in making your money work for you by getting our swing trade alerts ahead of time, reply back or comment “Swing Trade” below for more information.
💰 $SPXS: as the S&P 500 pulled back 2% last week we traded SPXS options call for +175% return on our money 💰
If markets are setting up for a bigger pullback, this move is just getting started as SPXS has room to move.
💰 $JPM: reported earnings on Friday and sold down +6.50% or 12pts just like our plan last week, see here 💰
Let’s make your money work for you, rather than you chasing it.
If you are interested in getting our swing trade alerts ahead of time, reply back or comment Swing Trades below for more information.
🚨Watchlist 👨🏫
🍎$AAPL: Apple after having a rough start to the year -15% showed some relative strength last week as markets sold off.
The next 2 weeks should tell if this is a change in direction or just a technical bounce.
AAPL over 180 works its way back to 185,190,195. Under 170 sells off to 165 and 160.
$TSM: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is set to report earnings on Thursday and will give us a heat check on the hot semiconductor space. TSM is up +45% YTD and has been looking a bit toppy the last 6 weeks.
TSMC is expected to post earnings of $1.29 per share for the current quarter with revenues of $18.29B
TSM over 152 has room to 158,165 and 170. Under 135 pulls back to 130,125 and 118
$NFLX: Netflix will kick off Tech earnings on Thursday after the close, it is in a tight rising wedge and setting up for an explosive move up or down depending on what they report.
Expectations for Netflix are high, focusing on the balance of subscribers, average revenue per member, the scaling of the advertising business, and the comparison of margin expansion versus company investments.
NFLX over 640 has room to 650,660 and 680. Under 605 pulls back to 580,560 and 540
*None of these stocks above are recommendations to buy, sell or trade. We do not give financial advice, you should always do your own due diligence and practice proper risk management.*
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