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Here’s a quick recap of Markets for the Week of January 31st, 2025 and what we are watching this week:
S&P 500 $SPY -1.0%
Nasdaq Composite $NDX -1.6%
Russell 2000 $IWM -0.9%
Dow Jones Industrial $DJI +0.3%
The week started on a sharply lower note due to the release of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI platform, which garnered popularity for being less resource-intensive (than ChatGPT) calling into question the competitiveness of U.S. companies that are powering the AI sector.
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Key points from last week:
DeepSeek sinks NVIDIA - NVIDIA (NVDA) dropped 17% on Monday, logging its largest single-day loss in market capitalization ever due to China’s less resource-intensive AI platform. Nvidia shares closed down 15.8% for the week.
FOMC Rate Decision - the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, as expected. Fed Chairman Powell stated: "With our policy stance significantly less restrictive than it had been, and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance."
Here come the Tariffs- Stocks sold off late Friday after the White House confirmed that 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China, will begin Saturday (February 1). The basis for the tariff actions were tied to immigration, trade deficit, and fentanyl issues. Trump has pursued tariffs as a way of forcing companies to re-locate to the United States.
Earnings headliners- some of the heavy hitters reported earnings last week: Apple closed 5.9% higher, Microsoft declined 6.5%, Meta Platforms jumped 6.4%, and Tesla declined 0.5%. While IBM +13.8%, Starbucks +9.0%, Boeing +0.3%, General Motors -8.3%, and Lockheed Martin -6.8%.
S&P 500 Heat map for the week
S&P 500 Sector Performance for the week and month of January
🗓 The Week Ahead 🧐
Monday, February 3rd - Friday, February 7th, 2025
Attention this week will be focused on:
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - Just when everyone thought conditions were finally easing up in the labor market, openings rose to a surprising 8.098 million in November from 7.839 million in October. Forecasters expect job openings pretty flat at 8.00 million in December. Openings were down at 7.372 million in September.
- The Labor Department's JOLTS report tracks monthly change in job openings and offers rates on hiring and quits. The reporting period lags other employment data including the employment situation report.
Employment Situation Report - Forecasters expect a rise of 158,000 even as winter weather may depress job growth in the January report. Forecasts call for no change in the unemployment rate at 4.1%.
- This report is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.
Bring on the highfliers - several high beta growth companies are reporting earnings this week: Palantir, Spotify, AMD, Alphabet, Chipotle, SNAP, PayPal, Uber, Disney, Ford, Qualcomm, Arm, Eli Lilly and Co, Amazon, Affirm, and Roblox.
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases this week
🚨Our Watchlist 👨🏫
$SPY: S&P 500 after selling off sharply to start the week on DeepSeek fears, markets managed to climb back and almost turned positive for the week until Friday afternoons tariff announcements which kept the dip buyers away.
There sure has been a lot of volatility the last 3-4 weeks but in reality we are just trading in a 20pt range 580-600; bullish above, bearish below.
This week all eyes will be on the labor market and earnings.
SPY needs to close above 605 for a move to 608,610,615. Under 598 pulls back to 595,590,585
$PLTR: Palantir, a top performer in 2024 up +300% and our swing from $24, will report earnings on Monday after the close. After making a new all time high on Friday, get your popcorn ready for this one.
Analysts anticipate earnings of 11 cents a share and sales of $776 million for the quarter, and earnings of 38 cents a share on sales of $2.8 billion for the full year.
PLTR over 85 look for 90,95,100. Under 75 has room to 70,65,60 and 50.
$AMD: Advanced Micro Devices (one of our 2025 top watches) reports earnings on Tuesday after the close and the chart has A LOT of work to do.
We recently issued a long-term investor alert with a tight stop and this earnings might make or break that call. If CEO Lisa Su can surprise in one component…this may start its turn around story, if not boy what a disappointment.
AMD expects Q4 2024 revenues of $7.5 billion (+/-$300 million) indicating year-over-year growth of 22% and a sequential rise of 10%.
AMD over 125 look for 130,135,140,150. Under 112 has room to 105,100,90
$ARM: Arm Holdings (another swing and favorite of ours) reports earnings on Wednesday after the close. It has been trading in a tight range since October, will this report help it breakout is what we’ll be watching.
Wall St. is looking for earnings per share of .34 with revenues of $945 million.
ARM over 165 look for 175,185,195. Under 140 has room down to 130,120,110
$AMZN: Amazon reports earnings on Thursday after the close. Trading at new all time highs, in a steep rising wedge and up +56% since August it is definitely vulnerable to a pullback soon.
Amazon is expected to post earnings of $1.52 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +50.5%.
AMZN over 240 look for 250,260,275. Under 220 pulls back to 210,200,190
*None of these stocks above are recommendations to buy, sell or trade. We do not give financial advice, you should always do your own due diligence and practice proper risk management.*
If you are interested in seeing how we are looking to trade these names reply back or comment Swing Trades below for more information.
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