- Mindset Money Matters: A Snowfish Publication
- Posts
- Markets Summary- Week of September 8th, 2023
Hope your week went well! Here is a quick recap of what happened in Markets for the Week of September 8th, 2023 and what we are watching for next week when smart money returns 🤓
Equities followed up a losing August with a losing week to begin September. September is historically known to be the worst month for stocks- “The September Effect” - will this year be any different?
As optimism cautiously returns to Wall Street, new data suggests that fears of an impending recession are receding among some S&P 500 companies. FactSet reports that significantly fewer S&P 500 companies mentioned “recession” during their second-quarter earnings calls compared to previous quarters. Only 62 companies cited the term, marking a 45% decline from the March quarter and the lowest number since the final quarter of 2021.
Reduced concerns about a recession, signs of a potential shift in Fed policy regarding rates and positive sector trends all point to the possibility this September may be different 🤔
Here are the main points from last week:
Apple - Closed the week down -5% after China banned government officials from using Apple devices, according to The Wall Street Journal, and the EU Commission designated Apple as one of six "gatekeepers," which will place it under a regulatory microscope.
Oil over $90 per barrel Brent crude oil surpassed $90 this week after announcements from Russia and Saudi Arabia that the two nations would extend their supply cuts through the end of the year. This is the highest that oil prices have been this year which sparked commentary from the White House that President Biden would use “everything within his toolkit” to aid Americans in the likely event of increased fuel costs.
US Q2 Productivity revised downward The Labor Department revised an initial reading for US Q2 Productivity down from 3.7% to 3.5%, which is still the highest productivity reading since Q3 2020.
S&P 500 Heatmap for the week
The Week Ahead
Monday, September 11th, 2023 - Friday, September 15th, 2023
The attention next week will be focused on:
Consumer Price Index CPI - Core prices in August are expected to hold steady and modest at a monthly increase of 0.2% to match July's as-expected 0.2% increase. Yet overall prices, reflecting food and energy, are expected to rise 0.6% after July's 0.2% increase which was also as expected. Annual rates, which in July were 3.2% overall and 4.7% for the core, are expected at 3.6% and 4.4% respectively.
- CPI is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation for the consumer. Annual inflation is also closely watched.
Producer Price Index PPI - Producer prices in August are expected to rise 0.4% on the month vs a 0.3% increase in July. The annual rate in August is seen at 1.3% vs July's 0.8% rate. August's ex-food ex-energy rate is seen at 0.2% vs July's 0.3% with the annual rate down 2 tenths to 2.2%.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller.
Consumer Sentiment - The first indication of consumer sentiment in September is expected to hold at August's 69.5 which was down more than 2 points from July.
- The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions households each month on their assessment of current conditions and expectations of future conditions.
Retail Sales - August sales are expected to rise 0.2% vs July's higher-than-expected 0.7% that started off third-quarter consumer spending on a strong note.
- Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.
Most Anticipated Earnings next week
Here is what we are watching next week:
$SPY: S&P 500 has been flagging in July and August trading in a tight range 438-458 bullish above, bearish below. Smart money (Institutional and Hedge funds) will be returning next week after summer holidays so we should see trading volume pick back up. Here are the key levels we are watching:
Bulls need to reclaim 446.50 for a move to 448, 450 and 452. Failure to hold 443 support look for Bears to push it down to 440, 438, 436
$QQQ: The Qs have also been flagging and consolidating in a tight range 360-380 bullish above, bearish below.
Bulls need to reclaim 375 for a move to 378-380, 384-385. Failure to hold 370 support and Bears will push it down to 368, 365, 360
Swing Trades Recap 📊
If you would like more information or are interested in getting these swing trade alerts, reply back “Need the Swing trade alerts”
Market sentiment and momentum has shifted risk off the last couple of weeks let’s see what happens this week when smart money returns after the summer holidays.
Here are some charts we are watching next week:
$MSFT after forming an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern on the daily it’s looking to breakout. If SPY and QQQ trade to the upside look for Microsoft to make a move to $350 and $360
$MSFT over $340-$342 trades to $348-$350, $355, $360. Failure to hold $330-$328 trades down to $320 and $315
$NFLX has been flagging after it popped over $440 resistance. If markets take a pop look for Netflix to make a move to $460 and $470
$NFLX over $450-$452 look for it to trade to $460, $465 and $470. Failure to hold $435 and it trades down to $425 and $415
$UBER our swing trade from $30 entry remains in a strong uptrending channel; It’s flagging in a $3 range $45-$48. Late Friday, Bloomberg announced Uber is working on a TaskRabbit/Angi's list- like service that will let app users hire people to conduct various tasks in an expansion beyond driving and deliveries.
A breakout over $48 resistance look for it to trade to $50, $55 and $60
*None of these stocks above are recommendations to buy, sell or trade. We do not give financial advice, you should always do your own due diligence and practice proper risk management.*
If you are interested in getting these swing trade alerts, reply back “I am interested in the swing trade alerts” for more information
Dark storm brewing or a beautiful sunset? Chino Beach, Puerto Viejo de Talamanca, Costa Rica
The key difference between achieving your financial goals or not, comes down to having the discipline to prioritize long-term objectives over short-term wants.
I value your time and will strive to keep the content easy to read and short enough to get to the point!
If you would like to support this free newsletter, here are the most helpful ways:
📲 Screenshot your favorite part, share it on your stories and tag me @SnowfishTrading
🏹Forward the newsletter to your friends, family or anyone who you feel it may help- they can subscribe here
📨 Reply back with any questions or topics you would like more information on
See you next week! 👋
Reply