Here is a quick recap of Markets for the Week of January 19th, 2024 and what we are watching this week 👨‍🏫

The S&P 500 closed Friday at new all time highs! This hasn't happened since January 2022.

Since 1956, whenever it's taken the S&P 500 over a year to make a new ATH, it has been higher 12 months later with median return of +13.5%.

Gains were largely driven by outperforming mega cap and semiconductor sector. The PHLX Semiconductor Index jumped 8.0% this week led by NVIDIA, which was up +8.7% alone.

Earnings season will decide if this new all time highs is the beginning of a much bigger move.

Here are the key points from last week:

• Rising market rates - made investors recalibrated rate cut expectations due to comments from some Fed officials and more strong economic data that is not likely to persuade the Fed to cut rates as soon, or as much, as the market hoped.

• Mixed earnings report - some of the standouts were Morgan Stanley $MS, Discover $DFS, Fastenal $FAST, Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM, Travelers $TRV

$SPY:  S&P 500 finally broke out of its 10pt trading range it was in since mid-December and tagged our 482 price target Friday. Semiconductors and Mega Cap stocks did their part pushing markets to new all time highs.

Now earnings will decide if this breakout has momentum or if this is a fake out breakout?

$QQQ:  Also had a very strong week breaking out to new all time highs on Friday. This was a big breakout but will earnings live up to these expectations?

Have your shopping list ready because any big pull backs will be HUGE buying opportunities!

I do a weekly Markets analysis every Monday during “Office Hours” 8:30pm EST via zoom for the Ceni Capital Community I will be speaking about the companies reporting earnings his week and the stocks I am watching.

If you are interested in making your money work for you by getting our swing trade alerts ahead of time, reply back or comment “Swing Trade alerts” below for more information.

$TSM: was by far the best play of the week. We discussed this earnings setup live in detail during Office Hours last Monday, before it happened. We played 110 option calls for +557% gain .

Learn to make your money work for you, rather than you chasing it. 

Watchlist 👨‍🏫

$IWM: Mega Caps did their thing the last 2 weeks (mainly semiconductors) as small caps pulled back. This 190 is a critical level Bulls need to hold in order for the small caps rally to continue and markets broaden out. A reclaim of 193-196 will initiate the beginning of its next leg up. If instead it rejects this level and fails to hold 188 it has room to trade down to 178.

$NFLX: Netflix will kick off mega cap earnings on Tuesday. Investors will be focused on what they say about their advertising line of business and guidance. Netflix has almost come full circle back to $500, a level it hasn’t seen since January 22nd, 2022. This $500-$525 will be a key resistance level for it.

$TSLA: Tesla has had plenty of negative headlines and outlook to start the year down -20%. It is reporting earnings on Wednesday and even though the EV sector has been as cold as NYC in January, it is still the leader in the space.

Is this a discounted dip buy (long term) for it or more pain ahead?

$AXP: American Express is reporting earnings on Friday. Amex is a great guide to consumer spending along with Mastercard, Visa, Discover. Discover reported earnings last week and sold off -14% after missing estimates but more importantly their write offs jumped to 4.1% from 2.1% last year.

Now even though Amex has a different clientele is this a sign the consumer is weakening?

If you are interested in getting our swing trade alerts ahead of time, reply back or comment “Swing Trades” below for more information.

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See you next week! 👋