New Year Hangover 🤒

Rough start to kick off 2024

Happy New Year! May your year be filled with health, prosperity and your dreams come true!

Here is a quick recap of Markets for the Week of January 5th, 2024 and what we are watching this week 👨‍🏫

The stock market registered losses following nine-straight weeks of gains to close out 2023. Profit-taking activity in the mega cap stocks, and a couple of other stocks that outperformed last year, contributed to the downbeat price action.

Rising rates also contributed to the negative bias this week after the 10-yr yield reclaim 4%.

Earnings season will decide if this is a healthy pull back or something greater.

Here are the key points from last week:

  • US 10-yr yield back over 4% - The price action in Treasuries was partially due to a recalibration of rate-cut expectations after the Minutes from the December 12-13 FOMC meeting were less dovish than hoped.

  • December Jobs Report - The US economy added 216,000 jobs in the month of December, which was well above the 170,000 estimate. For all 2023, employers added 2.7 million jobs, a slowdown from the 4.8 million added in 2022 but still above the years preceding the pandemic. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% vs the 3.8% expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 4.1% on an annual basis, which were both higher than expectations.

  • Geopolitical worries - intensified in the Red Sea after Iran sent a warship there in response to the U.S. destroying three Houthi boats.

  • Apple - was a standout loser, dropping nearly 6.0%, after two analyst downgrades and news that the DOJ is getting close to filing an antitrust case against Apple, according to The New York Times.

S&P 500 Heat map for the week

Sector Performance Breakdown

The Week Ahead

Monday, January 8th - Friday, January 12th, 2023

The attention this week will be focused on:

  • Consumer Price Index CPI - Core prices in December are expected to rise a monthly 0.2% vs 0.3% in November. Overall prices are expected to also rise 0.2% after increasing 0.1% in November. Annual rates, at 3.1% overall and 4.0% for the core in November, are expected at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively.

    -CPI is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation for the consumer.

  • Producer Price Index PPI - Producer prices in December are expected to rise 0.2% on the month vs no change in November. The annual rate in December is seen at 1.3% vs November's 0.9% increase.

    -PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller, measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.

  • Consumer Credit - Consumer credit is expected to increase $9.5 billion in November vs a $5.2 billion increase in October.

    -The dollar value of consumer installment credit outstanding. Changes in consumer credit indicate the state of consumer finances and portend future spending patterns. The report includes credit cards, vehicle loans, and student loans; mortgages are not included

Earnings Season kicks off with Banks this week

$SPY:  S&P 500 after 9 consecutive weekly gains finally cooled off last week and pulled back some closing Friday at 468 support.

Is this a normal healthy pull back or the start of something bigger?

Failure to hold 468 pulls back to 462,458,454,450. Reclaim of 470 trades to 472,475,478

$QQQ:  Mega cap tech has been much weaker to start the year pulling back -4% from its highs right before New Years Day. It closed Friday trying to hold 396 support for any meaningful bounce Bulls need to reclaim 406 failure to due so and we’ll see another leg down.

Failure to hold 395 pulls back to 390,386,382,377. Reclaim of 400 trades to 402,405,410

I do a weekly Markets analysis every Monday during “Office Hours” 8:30pm EST via zoom for the Ceni Capital Community I will be speaking about the inflation data this week, what to look for in earnings season and the stocks I am watching this week.

Trades Recap 📊

If you are interested in making your money work for you by getting our swing trade alerts ahead of time, reply back or comment “Swing Trade alerts” below for more information.

$SQQQ: As the Qs pulled back 4% to start the year we played calls for +129% gain .

$TGTX: our swing trade tagged it’s second price target at $19.50 for +52% return on our money from our $12.82 entry back on November 22nd. It's still looks strong so we raise our stop and continue to ride the momentum upward.

TGTX over 20 trades to 22,25,28

Learn to make your money work for you, rather than you chasing it. 

Watchlist 👨‍🏫

$RXRX: Biotech’s started the year strong as money shifted into the sector. RXRX has caught the attention of investors as Cathie Woods has been buying. Chart held up pretty well as markets were weak last week so let’s see if there’s continuation and this move is just getting started.

Over 12 trades 13,15,17.50 and 20. Under 11 pulls back to 9.50 and 8

$HIMS:  a telehealth consultation platform had a nice breakout but sold off to close the week on Eli Lilly news. It has been consolidating in a tight range since November if it can break over and hold above $9.50 it will start a run towards $12 and $15.

Over 9.60 trades to 10.50,11.50,12.50 and 15. Support at 8 and 7.50

$BA: Boeing had some negative news late Friday after a piece of an Alaskan Airlines plane flew off mid flight; luckily no one was hurt. The FAA ordered immediate grounding of certain Boeing 737 Max 9 jets over the weekend which will most likely have a negative affect on its stock.

Failure to hold 245 pulls back to 235,225,210. Reclaim of 250 trades to 260,270

If you are interested in getting our swing trade alerts ahead of time, reply back or comment “Swing Trades” below for more information.

*None of these stocks above are recommendations to buy, sell or trade. We do not give financial advice, you should always do your own due diligence and practice proper risk management.*

What are you looking to do different this year that will change where you are a year from now? Enough with the “New Year, New Me” boring lie. Sit down and actually put things into action to make sure you are moving forward.

Need help where to start?

Here 

I value your time and will strive to keep the content easy to read and short enough to get to the point!

If you would like to support this free newsletter, here are the most helpful ways:

  •  📲 Screenshot your favorite part, share it on your stories and tag me @SnowfishTrading @Mindset.Money.Matters

  •  🏹Forward the newsletter to your friends, family or anyone who you feel it may help- they can subscribe here

  •  📨 Reply back with any questions or topics you would like more information on

See you next week! 👋

Reply

or to participate.