Resilience to selling efforts

Key inflation data & the Fed ahead 😳

Author

Snowfish
June 09, 2024

Here is a quick recap of Markets for the Week of June 7th, 2024 and what we are watching this week

Major indices logged gains this week largely thanks to mega cap stocks outperforming their smaller peers.

S&P 500 $SPY +1.3%

Russell 2000 $IWM -2.1%

Nasdaq Composite $NDX +2.4%

Dow Jones Industrial $DJI +.03%

Concerns about economic growth kept the broader market in check in response to this week's economic data.

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Key points from last week:

  • ISM Manufacturing Index - for May reflected a faster pace of contraction than the market expected.

  • May Employment Report - showed higher than expected earnings growth.

  • Treasury yields - settled lower in response to the data and in response to the first rate cut by the ECB since September 2019.

  • Run to a billion - Roaring Kitty aka Keith Gill almost got his birthday wish…waking up a Billionaire Friday! That is until GameStop $GME released their earnings 4 days ahead of schedule and diluted some more shares ahead of Mr. Kitty’s much anticipated YouTube livestream. Marking a historic moment where he lost over $300 million live on YouTube as $GME stock tanked 🤕

S&P 500 Heat map for the week

Sector Performance Breakdown for last week

The Week Ahead

Monday, June 10th - Friday, June 14th, 2024

Attention this week will be focused on:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Consumer prices had been exceeding estimates until April's results which came in as forecast.
    - Overall prices are expected to rise only 0.1% in May after increasing 0.3% in April.
    - Core prices also increased 0.3% in April with May's consensus at 0.3%.
    - Annual rates, which in April were 3.4% overall and 3.6% for the core, are expected at 3.4% and 3.5% respectively.

    - CPI is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation for the consumer. Annual inflation is also closely watched.

  • Producer Price Index (PPI) - Producer prices in May are expected to rise 0.1% on the month vs. a higher-than-expected 0.5% increase in April.
    - The annual rate in May is seen at 2.4% vs. April's 2.2%.

    - The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller.

  • FOMC Announcement- The Fed is once again expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%. Markets are putting even money on an initial rate cut at the September meeting with slightly better odds in November.

    - Fed Chairman Powell’s Press Conference is what will set the tone for markets momentum the next 2-3 weeks.

Most Anticipated Earnings this week

$SPY: S&P 500 traded to our 535 target closing the week at new all time highs 📈

The broader market showed nice resilience to selling efforts but will this breakout be confirmed this week with the key inflation data being released or will it be a fakeout breakout?

SPY needs to hold above 528 for this breakout to continue, failure to do so and there is room down to 520 and 510.

SPY over 536 makes its way to 540,545,550. Under 526 pulls back to 520,515,510

Trades Recap 📊

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If you are interested in reply back or comment “Swing Trade” below for more information.

$GME: Gamestop from our watchlist gave us a +135% or 36pt move trading over $60 afterhours from our $26 call. 🤑🍿

$CRWD: CrowdStrike also from our watchlist last week gave a +12% or 40pts move trading to $370 after-hours Friday from our $330 callout after decent earnings and news it will be included in the S&P 500 index 🥳

🚨Watchlist 👨‍🏫

$MBLY: Mobileye Global is the latest name to get thrown into the short squeeze mania with a 21% short interest…only difference is they are actually profitable with 50% gross margins but they are heavily reinvesting in their self driving technology and the EV sector has been cold as ice 🥶

MBLY over 33 has room to 36,40,44,48. Under 30 pulls back to 27

🛒$CART: Maplebear Inc our swing from $25 is setting up for an add or swing re-entry after a decent earnings pull back.

CART over 35 has room to 38, 40 and 45. Under 30 pulls back to 28 and 25

🚘 $CVNA: Carvana is looking to breakout of the falling wedge it has been in and may be setting up for a +15% to +30% move.

CVNA over 110 has room to 120,125,130. Under 100 trades down to 90

📍$PINS: Pinterest (one of our main 2024 picks) is finally looking to breakout of the bull flag it has been since reporting earnings back on April 30th.

Can it give us a +15 to +20% move? 📈🧐

PINS over 45 has room to 48,50,55. Under 40 pulls back to 35

*None of these stocks above are recommendations to buy, sell or trade. We do not give financial advice, you should always do your own due diligence and practice proper risk management.*

If you are interested in seeing how we are looking to trade these names reply back or comment Swing Trades below for more information.

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