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Small Caps post best week since Oct 2023

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Hope you are enjoying your summer. We took a couple of weeks off from the newsletter due to travels, birthday celebrations and the July 4th holiday.

Here is a quick recap of Markets for the Week of July 12th, 2024 and what we are watching this week

S&P 500 $SPY +0.96%

Nasdaq Composite $NDX -0.30%

Dow Jones Industrial $DJI +1.59%

Russell 2000 $IWM +6.11% ๐Ÿฅณ

The CPI report overshadowed the PPI report and fueled optimism about the path of inflation and Fed policy.

The fed funds futures market is pricing in a 94% probability of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, which fueled the Small and Mid cap sectors to have their best week since October 30th, 2023.

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Key points from last week:

  • Total CPI - deflated 0.1% month-over-month, slowing the pace of growth to 3.0% on a year-over-year basis from 3.3% in May ๐ŸŸข

  • Total PPI - was up 0.2% vs. an expected 0.1% increase and Core PPI was up 0.4% vs. an expected 0.1% increase ๐ŸŸก

  • Fed Chair Powell's - semiannual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee came with no surprises in his remarks, acknowledging that the "likely next direction" will be a loosening of policy, indicating a rate hike is not likely ๐Ÿฅฑ

  • Start of earnings season - JPMorgan Chase $JPM, Wells Fargo $WFC, and Citigroup $C quarterly results garnered negative responses despite beating earnings estimates ๐Ÿ˜ณ

S&P 500 Heat map for the week

Sector Performance Breakdown for last week

The Week Ahead

Monday, July 15th - Friday, July 19th, 2024

Attention this week will be focused on:

  • Retail Sales - June sales are expected to fall 0.2% vs. up 0.1% and down 0.2% in the two prior months. Such a result would wind up a dismal second quarter.

    - Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

  • Leading Economic Indicators - The LEI has missed expectations the last three reports, falling 0.5% in May to extend this report's dark and gloomy trend. June's consensus is a 0.3% decline.

    - The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.

Most Anticipated Earnings this week

$SPY: S&P 500 traded to our 560 target closing the week at new all time highs ๐Ÿ“ˆ

We saw money rotate away from mega caps due to profit taking activity and moving into areas of the market that have trailed so far this year.

Some may say $SPY needs to cool off some and vulnerable for a pullback after this nice rally since June but as long as it holds above 548, Bulls are in control.

SPY over 562 makes its way to 566,570,575. Under 555 pulls back to 550 and 545

Trades Recap ๐Ÿ“Š

๐Ÿ“ˆ We took some time from the newsletter but not from trading setups๐Ÿค‘

๐Ÿš˜$TSLA: While Tesla has gone on a +40% run the last couple of weeks, we traded it via $TSLL (Tesla Bullish 2x ETF) for +107% gain.

$HIMS: Our swing Hims & Hers Health took a hit on a short sellers report so we locked in some more profits at this critical $20 level for +90% return on our money.

$RNA: Our swing from $7.28 traded to our $45 price target where we locked in some more profits for +515% return on our money.

๐ŸŽ$AAPL: Apple which is now up +35% from our callout here back in May tagged our swing target of $230. Now even though we were late to the party we were still able to lock in +47% return on our money on our $AAPU swing.

๐Ÿ’ช$ARM: Arm Holdings our swing from $113 tagged our $185 target last week where we took some more profit for +59% return on our money.

Let us guide you on making money while you are at work or on vacation. Reply back or comment โ€œSwing Tradeโ€ below for more information.

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$IWM: Russell 2000 small caps posted its best week since October 2023 +6%โ€ฆa blip or the beginning of something bigger? ๐Ÿ‘€

Rate cuts favor this sector and if we are setting up for a September rate cut, August will be a hell of a month for these high flying growth names.

Donโ€™t hate yourself for missing it!

IWM needs to hold above 208 for a move to 215,220,230. Under 208 pulls back to 203

๐Ÿฆ$FAS: Financials kicked off earnings season on Friday ($JPM, $WFC, $C) and they didnโ€™t get off to a good start but itโ€™s not how you start but how you finish, right?

Next week weโ€™ll get a better idea with a lot more banks reporting earnings, can $FAS finally breakout of its trading range?

Hereโ€™s how we are looking to play it.

FAS over 112 has room to 120,130,140. Under 105 pulls back to 100 and 90.

๐Ÿ’พ $TSM: Taiwan Semiconductor has been on a tear since November up +120%, itโ€™s reporting earnings on Thursday and will give us a semiconductor heat check.

Over $200 the rally continues, under $180 itโ€™ll start pulling back.

TSM over 200 has room to 210,220,230. Under 180 pulls back to 170 and 155.

๐Ÿ“บ $NFLX: Netflix has recovered from its 2021-2022 bear market selloff and traded back to its $700 all time highs, now what though? ๐Ÿ˜ณ

Expectations for Netflix are high heading into Q2 earnings on Thursday, investors will focus on their subscribers numbers, operating income, ads business and free cash flow guidance.

It needs to hold above $630 for a retest of that $700 resistance, if not it has room to pull back.

NFLX reclaim of 660 has room to 680,700,720. Under 630 pulls back to 610,580.560

*None of these stocks above are recommendations to buy, sell or trade. We do not give financial advice, you should always do your own due diligence and practice proper risk management.*

If you are interested in seeing how we are looking to trade these names reply back or comment Swing Trades below for more information.

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