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Technicals come into play 📊
Growth concerns push Markets into correction territory
Snowfish
March 10, 2025
Here’s a quick recap of Markets for the Week of March 7th, 2025 and what we are watching this week:
S&P 500 $SPY -3.1%
Nasdaq Composite $NDX -3.5%
Russell 2000 $IWM -4.0%
Dow Jones Industrial $DJI -2.4%
Growth concerns and tariff worries were the main driving forces again, along with some technical deterioration.
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Key points from last week:
Trade war heats up - after 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico went into effect and tariffs on China increased by 10% to 20% as the countries announced subsequent retaliatory measures. All USMCA compliant goods from Canada (about 38%) and Mexico (about 50%) will be exempt from tariffs until April 2 🔴
Growth concerns - If tariffs drive up inflation, the market may respond (and has responded in recent weeks) to the notion that the higher prices will end up affecting consumer demand. Target recently warned that price increases are likely, which may impact consumer demand and lead to lower growth in earnings and in the economy 🟡
Technical Deterioration - the S&P 500 briefly dipped below its 200-day moving average. The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite (already in correction territory) dropped further below their respective 200-day moving averages 🔴
S&P 500 Heat map for the week
S&P 500 Sector Performance for the week
🗓 The Week Ahead 🧐
Monday, March 10th - Friday, March 14th, 2025
Attention this week will be focused on:
JOLTS - Job openings dropped unexpectedly to 7.6 million in December from 8.16 million in November and the consensus looks for another decline to 7.5 million in January as the labor market cools.
- The Labor Department's JOLTS report tracks monthly change in job openings and offers rates on hiring and quits. The reporting period lags other employment data including the employment situation report. The word JOLTS stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey..
CPI - Forecasters look for another 0.3% print for total and core CPI, suggesting no real change in the inflation picture. Food and energy prices continue to exert upward pressure. Meanwhile, business surveys suggest some companies are raising prices in anticipation of higher costs from tariffs.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation for the consumer. Annual inflation is also closely watched.
PPI - The consensus looks for headline PPI to ease off slightly after an ugly January report. The consensus is up 0.3% on month and up 3.4% on year in February after rising 0.4% and 3.5% in January. PPI ex-food & energy is seen up 0.3% on the month in February after rising 0.3% in January.
- The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller.
Most Anticipated Earnings this week
🚨Our Watchlist 👨🏫
$SPY: S&P 500 has pulled back 6.4% the last 3 weeks on growth concerns as it tested it’s 200d moving average for the first time since October of 2023 last week.
It’s in a steep falling wedge so due for a bounce, question is how strong of a bounce will it be.
With all eye’s this week on inflation data (CPI/PPI), can cool numbers initiate a bulls rally?
SPY over 578 has room to 582,585,590,595. Under 568 pulls back to 565,560,550
$NVDA: Nvidia, is down 21% the last 3 weeks as it test support at $110.
If it can hold above $110 it may setup for a nice risk to reward short term bounce swing.
NVDA reclaim of 113 has room to 115,118,122,125-130. Under 108 look for 105,100,95.
$TSLA: Tesla is down 40% year to date giving back all its post election gains 🥴
It tested it’s previous breakout level and may setup for a short term swing opportunity if it can hold above $250.
TSLA reclaim of 265 look for 275,285,295,310. Under 245 pulls back to 240,230,220,210
$META: Meta is the best looking Tech name and our favorite for the week. Even though it is down 15% the last 3 weeks, it has shown relative strength as markets pulled back.
META had a strong bounce Friday at $600 support for a doji candle close. Let’s see if it can reclaim $632 for a bounce play.
META over 632 look for 645,655,665,675. Under 618 pulls back to 610,600,590,580
*None of these stocks above are recommendations to buy, sell or trade. We do not give financial advice, you should always do your own due diligence and practice proper risk management.*
If you are interested in seeing how we are looking to trade these names reply back or comment Swing Trades below for more information.
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