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- Welcome 2025 🎉
Here’s a quick recap of Markets for the Week of January 3rd, 2025 and what we are watching this week:
S&P 500 $SPY -0.5%
Nasdaq Composite $NDX -0.5%
Russell 2000 $IWM +1.1%
Dow Jones Industrial $DJI -0.6%
The major indices lost steam at the end of the year after registering huge gains, but a rebound attempt kicked in to end the week.
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Key points from last week:
A Grinch Christmas- the Santa Claus Rally which normally is a bullish time for markets was a no show. It has been observed that significant downturns have occurred (but not always) in years when Santa didn't show. Bear in mind that Santa didn't show last year and the S&P 500 went on to log a +23% price gain for 2024 🎅
Tesla loses charge - after reporting disappointing Q4 deliveries of 495,570 vs. estimates of 512,277. Tesla suffered its first annual decline in deliveries, which slipped by 1.1% yr/yr to 1.79 mln vehicles for 2024.
- A combination of slowing EV demand and intensifying competition, especially in China, are the contributing factors 🔴
S&P 500 Heat map for the week
S&P 500 Heat map for the week and month of December
🗓 The Week Ahead 🧐
Monday, January 6th - Friday, January 10th, 2025
Attention this week will be focused on:
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - job openings are expected to ease only marginally to 7.650 million in November from 7.774 million in October.
- The Labor Department's JOLTS report tracks monthly change in job openings and offers rates on hiring and quits. The reporting period lags other employment data including the employment situation report.FOMC Meeting Minutes - detailing the issues of debate and consensus among policymakers, the Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes of its latest meeting three weeks after the meeting.
Employment Situation Report - The consensus on payrolls looks for a gain of 157,000 and for the unemployment rate to stay steady at 4.2%. Private payrolls are seen up 130,000. These numbers would be consistent with a general cooling trend in the employment market after a few months of readings skewed by weather and strikes.
- This report is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.
🚨Our Watchlist 👨🏫
$SPY: S&P 500 had an aggressive selloff back on December 18th due to the Fed rate announcement and has been consolidating in a 580-600 range; bullish above, bearish below.
Smart money returns this week from the holiday break which should bring increased volume and volatility.
January’s First Five trading days tend to be an early warning system of what the year can look like, according to the stock market almanac.
The last 48 up First Five Days were followed by full-year gains: 40x with an 83% accuracy and +14% average gain in all 48 years. The 8 exceptions include: flat years 1994, 2011, 2015, four related war, and 2018.
The 26 down First Five Days were followed by 14 up years and 12 down (46% accurate) and an average gain of 0.3%.
SPY over 592 look for a move to 596,600,604,608,610. Under 588 down to 585,582,576.
$UBER: our swing from $30 might be giving us an opportunity to add soon as it’s looking interesting here.
Uber has taken a lot of pressure from Tesla’s autonomous driving headlines and Google’s investment in Waymo, however this pullback might actually create a great buying opportunity.
UBER needs to reclaim 65 for a move to 70,75,80,90. Under 58 has room down to 55,50,40.
$DKNG: It’s almost that time of the year again…Super Bowl.
Our number 1 play call is DraftKings which has been consolidating nicely in a tight $10 range and setting up for a swing trade opportunity.
Gamblers are going to be gamblers, what can we say it’s a recession proof business.
DKNG over 40 has room to 42,45,50,60. Under 35 trades down to 30 and 25.
*None of these stocks above are recommendations to buy, sell or trade. We do not give financial advice, you should always do your own due diligence and practice proper risk management.*
If you are interested in seeing how we are looking to trade these names reply back or comment Swing Trades below for more information.
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