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Here’s a quick recap of Markets for the Week of February 7th, 2025 and what we are watching this week:
S&P 500 $SPY -0.2%
Nasdaq Composite $NDX -0.5%
Russell 2000 $IWM -0.3%
Dow Jones Industrial $DJI -0.5%
President Trump announced that the U.S. will be implementing a 25% tariff on imported goods from Canada and Mexico (but only a 10% tariff on imported Canadian energy) and a 10% tariff on imported goods from China. While indicating that tariffs for the EU will likely be implemented fairly soon.
Fun Fact:
The “Super Bowl Indicator” is a theory suggesting that the stock market’s performance can be predicted based on the Super Bowl’s outcome 👀
When the Eagles won the Super Bowl in 2018, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of about 6% that year.
The Chiefs’ victories in 2020, 2023, and 2024, the S&P 500 saw gains of 16.3%, 24.2%, and 23.3% respectively.
This indicator has a 68% accuracy of predicting the year’s returns.
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Key points from last week:
Canada and Mexico strike a deal - to avoid tariffs for one month. However, China said it will be imposing a 15% tariff on imports of coal and LNG from the U.S., and 10% tariffs on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and certain cars starting February 10 🟡
The January Employment Situation report - showed an increase in nonfarm payrolls and a historically low unemployment rate of 4%. Market participants took the 0.5% increase in average hourly earnings, a potential inflationary signal, in stride 🟡
The preliminary February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey - came in weaker than expected at 67.8 vs. 71.3 expected. The main point of concern was that year-ahead inflation expectations spiked to 4.3%, a sharp jump from 3.3% 🔴
S&P 500 Heat map for the week
S&P 500 Sector Performance for the week
🗓 The Week Ahead 🧐
Monday, February 10th - Friday, February 14th, 2025
Attention this week will be focused on:
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - Optimism about the economy under Trump lifted the index by 3.4 points to 105.1 in December, its highest since October 2018. For January, the index is expected to correct slightly to a still upbeat 104.7, well above its long-time average of 98.0.
- The small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of 10 seasonally adjusted components based on the following questions: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Headline and core are both expected up 0.3% on the month, not a pretty picture for an inflation-weary market. Food and energy prices have been rising, along with vehicles and shelter costs, the usual suspects. Total CPI is seen up 2.9% and core up 3.2% on year.
Hard for the Fed to contemplate rate cuts with these numbers.
- The CPI is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation for the consumerFederal Reserve Jerome Powell - delivers semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
Producer Price Index (PPI) - More of the same for wholesale prices: the consensus sees PPI-FD up 0.2% on the month and up 3.2% on the year. Ex-food & energy, PPI-FD is seen up 0.3% and up 3.3% on the year.
- The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller.
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases this week
🚨Our Trades Recap 📊
(Blue arrows are our buy alerts, Red arrows are sell alerts)
$PLTR: Palantir, a top performer in 2024 and our swing from $24 tagged our $115 price target last week for +383% return on our money, after blowing out earnings. This may signal a blow off top here soon though as FOMO kicks in for investors who missed this run, so careful chasing it up here.
Stock ticker, Current price, Price paid, Percentage gained
$UBER: Uber finally gave us that breakout we wrote about here for a +17% move from our add to swing signal as it tagged $75 last week. Our swing is now up +75% and this move might just be heating up 👀
Stock ticker, Current price, Price paid, Percentage gained
🚨Our Watchlist 👨🏫
$SPY: S&P 500 continues to wedge, as it’s 580-600 trading range gets tighter.
Selling pressure (indicated by the tall wicks) stepped in again last week as we poked our heads over 600, while Bulls defended 590 support…for now.
SPY needs to close over 605 for a move to 608,610,615. Under 590 pulls back to 585,580,570
$SMCI: For our adrenaline junkie readers, Super Micro Computers might set off some fireworks this week. Down over 70% from it’s all time highs back in March of 2024, is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday after the close and any surprise up may ignite a nice move.
Super Micro is expected to post earnings of $0.63 per share, indicating a change of +12.5% from the year-ago quarter.
SMCI over 40 makes a move to 45,50,60. Under 30 sells down to 28,25,20 and 10
$UPST: Upstart Holdings, a growth name we are watching closely for a move, is also reporting earnings on Tuesday.
Upstart is expected to reveal a quarterly loss of $0.05 per share, indicating an increase of 54.6% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $180.06 million, representing an increase of 28.3% year over year.
UPST over 75 has room to 80,85,90,100. Under 65 pulls back to 60,55,50 and 40.
$DKNG: DraftKings our recent swing, which we wrote about here, is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday. Being up +10% on our swing, we have a tight stop on this as it can go either way if earnings surprise investors.
DraftKings is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.19 per share, which represents a year-over-year change of -90%. Revenues are expected to be $1.41 billion, up 14.9% from the year-ago quarter.
DKNG over 45 look for a move to 50,55,60,70. Under 40 sells down to 35,30,25
*None of these stocks above are recommendations to buy, sell or trade. We do not give financial advice, you should always do your own due diligence and practice proper risk management.*
If you are interested in seeing how we are looking to trade these names reply back or comment Swing Trades below for more information.
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