Hope your weekend is going well!

Welcome to Week 1 of

“The Mindset Money Matters 6 Week Challenge!”

Are you ready to embark on a transformative journey?

In the quiet spaces of self-discovery, you unveil the power to reshape your narrative.

Now that you have identified the challenge and set SMART goals, envision the path ahead with optimism.

This journey isn't about instant perfection; it's about progress and the pursuit of a better you.

In the coming weeks, we'll dive into action, resilience, and growth. We are here to support and uplift each other during this period of change; use the bottom of this post “Join the conversation” to let us know how you are doing or if you are feeling stuck. We have your back 💪

Trust yourself, stay committed, and embrace the process, for in every step lies an opportunity to redefine what's possible.

Here is a quick recap of Markets for the Week of November 17th, 2023 and what we are watching this week 👨‍🏫

Fear of missing out kicked in as the bulk of last week gains followed the October Consumer Price Index, which corroborated the notion that the Fed is done raising rates.

That report, along with the October Producer Price Index, the October Retail Sales, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the October Housing Starts data, all seemed consistent with a soft landing scenario for the economy.

The fed funds futures market priced out the probability of any additional rate hikes by the Fed. It now sees 100 basis points of cuts by the end of 2024 with a 40% probability those cuts start in March, and an 85% that those cuts start in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Algo’s will now be set to buy the dips, how will you take advantage of this?

Here are the key points from last week:

• October CPI & PPI- show that inflation is moving in the right direction, and because it is, the market will continue to believe that the Fed won't be moving the target range for the fed funds rate any higher. Instead look to lower it if this trend continues.

• Treasury yields - took a sharp turn lower in response to the data and the idea that the Fed is done raising rates. The 2-yr note yield fell 15 basis points this week to 4.90%. The 10-yr note yield declined 19 basis points to 4.44%.

• US retail sales report - came in weak but not worse than expected; -0.1% on headline higher than the -0.3% expected. Indicating that US consumers remain in good shape even through signs of weakening.

• President Biden & Chinese President Xi - met in San Francisco on Wednesday to lay the groundwork for potential breakthroughs regarding bilateral trade, tariffs, and military communications.

$SPY: S&P 500 is in a steep uptrending channel up +10% in just 2 weeks. After gapping up due to softer inflation data the S&P 500 consolidated last week right at that 450 resistance level we wrote about last week. Some consolidation or a pullback would be healthy for a continuation rally into year end.

This will create some great swing trades opportunities for us!

$QQQ: is also in a steep uptrending channel up +12.8% in the last 2 weeks. It also gapped up on Tuesday and consolidated at that 388 resistance and July highs we wrote about last week. It too needs some consolidation for this rally to continue into year end.

I do a weekly Markets analysis every Monday during “Office Hours” 8:30pm EST via zoom for the Ceni Capital Community I will be speaking about the Christmas Rally heading into year end, how we plan to capitalize and the stocks I am watching for swing trades this week.

Here are how some of our callouts did last week:

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🎯 $TGT: reported earnings last week and here’s what our plan was.

Target reported better than expected earnings and gave us a quick +23% gain as it traded to our $130 price target. It consolidated for the rest of the week and may still have momentum so we are keeping it on watch this week.

📺$WMT: we warned about Walmart last week as it too was reporting earnings and it sold off $15 or 8.7% from our callout trading down to $155.

Walmart CEO Doug McMillon warned that a period of deflation could be coming in the next few months which worried investors.

📺$NFLX: Netflix continued its strong run last week as it traded to our $465 price target. Its up +$123 or 35% since our callout. It is coming into a level of key resistance so needs to consolidate some before closing the gap above.

Here are some charts we are watching this week:

💾 $NVDA: Nvidia is reporting earnings on Tuesday and is probably the most anticipated name this season. It is up +255% year to date and has been consolidating in a tight range $400-$500 since June; bullish above, bearish below.

Nvidia is expected to earn $3.37 a share on sales of $16.2 billion. That would represent 481% year-over-year EPS growth and 173% revenue growth.

$KSS: Kohls is reporting earnings on Tuesday. It has formed a double bottom at it’s 2020 lows and may be setting up for a trend reversal if it can reclaim $30 with a surprise earnings beat.

Learn to make your money work for you, rather than you chasing it. 

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