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Here is a quick recap of Markets for the Week of December 8th, 2023 and what we are watching this week 👨🏫
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 4,604 marking an 11.8% rise off its October 27 low 4,117 and set a new 52-week high.
Even though there was not a lot of conviction from buyers or sellers due in part to a growing sense that the market is overbought on a short-term basis and some caution ahead of the Fed rate decision on Wednesday.
Will key inflation data this week along with Powell kill the Bulls momentum?
Here are the key points from last week:
Alphabet GOOG - gained +2.5% on the week following its Gemini AI model reveal.
Moody's downgraded China's credit outlook - to negative from stable, tied to concerns about structurally weaker growth prospects.
The October JOLTS - Job Openings Report showed the lowest number of job openings (8.733 million) since March 2021.
Fed Funds Futures market - is no longer pricing in a rate cut in March following last week's data, but it still sees a strong likelihood of a cut in May (78.5% on Friday), according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Bitcoin - traded to 44,000 hitting a 20 month high.
S&P 500 Heat map for the week
Sector Breakdown
The Week Ahead
Monday, December 11th - Friday, December 15th, 2023
The attention this week will be focused on:
Consumer Price Index CPI - Overall prices in November are expected to come in unchanged as they did in October. Annual rates, at 3.2% overall and 4.0% for the core in October, are expected at 3.1% and 4.0% respectively.
-CPI is a measure of the change in the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly changes in the CPI represent the rate of inflation for the consumer.
Producer Price Index PPI - The annual rate in November is expected at +1% vs October's +1.3%. November's ex-food ex-energy rate is seen +0.2% on the month and +2.2% on the year vs no change on the month in October and a +2.4% rise on the year.
-PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller, measures the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services.
FOMC rate announcement & Powell Press Conference - like the November meeting, the Fed is expected to hold policy steady at the December meeting and wait for prior rate hikes to do their work. Core inflation remains too high but at about 4% has been moderating.
$SPY: S&P 500 looked to break out of its tight trading range on Friday as it traded to new 52wk highs at 460 like we wrote about here. This is a big week ahead for it with key inflation data, the Fed’s rate decision and Powell's speech.
Will this breakout have momentum to trade to 470 as we head to year end or actually initiate the pullback that everyone is looking for?
Over 462 trades to 465,468,470, 472. Under 454 pullback to 450,446,440 and 437
$QQQ: closed Friday testing the top of its trading range at 392. Look for this week’s data to cause it to breakout or pullback.
Over 392 trades to 397,400,402 and 405. Failure to hold 388 pulls back to 383,378 and 372.
I do a weekly Markets analysis every Monday during “Office Hours” 8:30pm EST via zoom for the Ceni Capital Community I will be speaking about the key inflation data we have, Fed’s rate decision and the stocks I am watching this week.
Most Anticipated Earnings Next Week
Trades Recap 📊
If you are interested in making your money work for you by getting our swing trade alerts ahead of time, reply back or comment “Swing Trade alerts” below for more information.
$ALT: biotech that popped on its obesity drug trial results was a HUGE winner for us +364% gain on options and 84% on shares. Here is what we said last week.
$TGTX: our swing trade tagged it’s first price target at $16.50 for +35% gain from our $12.28 entry back on November 22nd. Its not done so we raise our stop and continue to play the momentum upward.
TGTX over 17.30 trades to 19.50 and 22.
Watchlist 👨🏫
🚘$CVNA: Carvana was a great swing trade for us earlier this year when we traded it from $12 to $50 for +315%, see here. Carvana may be setting up for an end of the year squeeze as it has a high short float % = meaning most investors are positioned for it to trade lower.
Over 42.50 trades to 45,48,55,60. Failure to hold 37 trades down to 35,33,30
$U: is a high beta growth name that is flagging right under its 200d m.a. If it can break thru and hold 33.50 it may give a nice +20% move to 40.
Over 33.50 trades to 35,37,40 and 45. Failure to hold 31 pulls back to 28.50
🚗 $TSLA: Tesla has been consolidating since November 14th in a $15 range $230-$245; if we get a bullish reaction to the headlines this week look for it to break out of its range.
Reclaim of 246 trades to 250,255,260,265. Failure at 230 trades down to 224 and 220
$LYFT: Lyft is lagging in its space but it is setting up for a nice 20% move. If markets remain strong heading into year end Lyft has some catching up to do.
Over 13.30 trades to 16,18 and 20.
*None of these stocks above are recommendations to buy, sell or trade. We do not give financial advice, you should always do your own due diligence and practice proper risk management.*
Learn to make your money work for you, rather than you chasing it.
Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US consumer dollar has been cut in half due to inflation.
At the same time, the S&P 500 has gained +764% (>7% per year) after adjusting for inflation.
What are you doing to keep up?
If you are interested in getting our swing trade alerts ahead of time, reply back or comment “Swing Trades” below for more information.
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See you next week! 👋
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