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Here’s a quick recap of Markets for the Week of February 14th, 2025 and what we are watching this week:
S&P 500 $SPY +1.5%
Nasdaq Composite $NDX +2.6%
Russell 2000 $IWM 0.0%
Dow Jones Industrial $DJI +0.5%
Upside moves were supported by solid buying in the mega cap space, as market participants were dealing with a lot of economic data, news about tariffs, and commentary from Fed Chair Powell.
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Key points from last week:
Fed Chairman Powell’s - semi-annual testimony before Congress didn't feature any big surprises. He again said that there is no hurry to adjust the policy stance (aka cut rates), repeating comments made at the conclusion of the January FOMC policy meeting 🟡
President Trump tariff plan - President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, which will go into effect on March 12 with Australia potentially receiving an exemption. His reciprocal tariff plan was seen as less economically provocative as feared and won't be applied until April 1 at the earliest, and will be applied on a case-by-case basis 🟡
Inflation scare - both the CPI and PPI inflation data came in hotter than expected pushing back rate cut expectations. Could rates actually go up this year?🔴
S&P 500 Heat map for the week
S&P 500 Sector Performance for the week
🗓 The Week Ahead 🧐
Monday, February 17th - Friday, February 21st, 2025
Attention this week will be focused on:
Housing Starts and Permits - The call for January is a 1.397 million unit rate, down from 1.499 million in December as the market deals with mortgage rates near 7%. Permits are seen at a 1.470 million unit rate in January vs. 1.483 million in December.
- Housing starts measure the initial construction of single-family and multi-family units on a monthly basis. Data on permits provide indications of future construction. A housing start is registered at the start of construction of a new building intended primarily as a residential building.
Existing Home Sales - Sales are seen down a bit at an annual rate of 4.16 million units in January after rising more than expected to 4.24 million in December from 4.150 million in November.
- Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends.
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases this week
🚨Our Trades Recap 📊
(Blue arrows are our buy alerts, Red arrows are sell alerts)
$DKNG: DraftKings traded through our $50 price target last week for +45% return on our money, after reporting earnings. We broke this trade down weekly before it happened for members and discussed why we liked it here.
Stock ticker, Current price, Price paid, Percentage gained
$UPST: Upstart, a name we wrote about last week here gave us a quick +30% move after reporting better than expected earnings.
🚨Our Watchlist 👨🏫
$SPY: S&P 500’s wedge is getting tighter and tighter now, trading in a 8pt range 600-608. We should expect a breakout or breakdown soon 👀
Over 610 we’ll break to the upside, under 598 has room down to 592 and 585 for starters.
SPY over 610 look for 615,620,625. Under 598 pulls back to 595,590,585,580
$BABA: Alibaba, our previous swing which we were just a bit early on, is up +55% (mostly due to their AI buzz) going into its earnings on Thursday.
Is this move just getting started or close to topping as it has done the last couple of times?
BABA over 125 look for 135,145,155. Under 120 pulls back to 115,105,95
$U: Unity Software, a growth name we are watching closely for a move this week, is reporting earnings on Thursday. Now their numbers aren’t expected to be great but any surprise could spark a nice pop.
Unity is expected to post a loss of $0.35 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -252.2%.
U over 28 look for 30,35,38,42. Under 18 sells down to 16,12,10
$XYZ: Block Inc, is our favorite for the week - hence why we left it for last, to reward those that read the whole newsletter 😏
Block has been consolidating in a tight range at a key level $80-$90 since November. If it can get over $95 may setup for a +25% move.
Block Q4 2024 revenues are forecasted at $6.2 billion, indicating growth of 8% from the year-ago quarter’s actual with EPS of .82 suggesting 82.2% growth from the year-ago.
XYZ over 95 has room to 100,105,115,120. Under 80 look for 75,70,60
*None of these stocks above are recommendations to buy, sell or trade. We do not give financial advice, you should always do your own due diligence and practice proper risk management.*
If you are interested in seeing how we are looking to trade these names reply back or comment Swing Trades below for more information.
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